Water availability and demand scenarios

 The water resources sector is one of the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Impact on water availability will have multiple consequences in all directly or indirectly related sectors (e.g. energy, irrigation, water supply, biodiversity, food security, human and environmental health, etc.). This in turn adversely affects communities and their livelihoods in the river basins and beyond. 

Water availability scenarios are needed to assess the impacts in these sectors and plan for adaptation. The understanding of current and projected temporal and spatial pattern water balance is essential to develop strategies and plans to adapt to changing water availability and demand.

Outputs

Water availability and demand scenarios developed for at least 4 sub basins.

Strategic orientations

Developing water availability scenarios for the upper part of the river basins and relevant sub-basins; building up water demand scenarios for the relevant sub-basins; partitioning of runoff contribution from different natural storages (snow, glacier, rainfall, groundwater, etc); establishing water balance at relevant locations (nodes) in the present and future scenarios.

Activities

Collate data and information; integrate and use peer-reviewed international models to ensure cross-boundary application; develop detailed methodologies for water availability and demand analysis; develop and validate models at the pilot catchment scale and up-scaling to the sub-basin and larger scales.

Deliverables

Inventory of relative roles of various natural storages in the runoff at various spatial scales and likely variations under climate change; water availability and demand for baseline period; existing scenario of water stress; water availability and demand for future period; scenario of water stress at various time slices in the 21st century.