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A flood of challenges

David James Molden

2 mins Read

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The ICIMOD family has been working from home since March because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Besides the deluge of news about the virus and its impacts across the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region, we have also been witnessing rain – and lots of it. April and May are normally dry, but here in Kathmandu we had an unusually wet pre-monsoon period, and monsoon has brought torrential and unceasing rain.

In many ways this has been a blessing. The skies look beautiful and clear, peppered with soaring clouds, and we are treated to occasional glimpses of the snowy Himalaya. We are surrounded by lush greenery, biodiverse forests, and beautiful, productive agricultural fields. But the rainy season also spells danger, especially during intense heavy rainfall events. Our colleagues had pointed out that we could be facing “double trouble” – floods and a zoonotic disease pandemic – and discussed our preparedness. Unfortunately, we are already in the thick of combating this dual challenge.

Climate change predictions point to higher and more uncertain rainfall in the HKH region, with periods of intense rain and drought. Whether this is due to climate change is hard to say, but it does give us a sense of what climate change-induced impacts could look like. Moreover, with the way our cities and waterways are managed, the urban population is highly vulnerable to floods. Our work on cities has shown that better management could reduce the damage by floods.

We need to be better prepared for floods, and ICIMOD has been working on several dimensions for preparation. First, we need to make data readily available to concerned authorities and to communities. We have been able to prepare a regional picture of what is happening. We have been working with hydromet departments to create flood outlooks to provide some kind of early warning.

Second, early warning systems and community awareness are essential. We work on climate services in collaboration with communities and government departments, and we recognize the importance of communicating clearly and quickly with users. We have been developing technologies useful for keeping people healthy during floods, like raised eco-san toilets. Plus, we are testing and promoting water harvesting and recharging runoff for spring rejuvenation using monsoon rains.

Over my time at ICIMOD, I have been very inspired by our work with community-based flood early warning systems. We have collaborated with our partners to develop a low-cost technology and then worked closely with communities to deploy these. Our first experience was in Assam, where the approach is successfully saving property and possibly lives from floods. In a successful case of transboundary cooperation during a flood event, we also worked with communities in Nepal and India who came together to provide transboundary early warnings. We tried the approach in the mountains of Pakistan where flash floods and glacial outburst floods are common – and it worked again. Now, we are working with communities and governments on sustainability of these systems.

ICIMOD acts as a vital cog in flood preparation, warning, and response mechanisms, sharing experiences and information among different stakeholders in our Regional Member Countries and beyond. An important role next will be acting as a regional hub for climate services. For this, we are working with governments and communities to share information and data, co-develop approaches for climate services, and build capacity to apply the latest approaches and make these accessible for the communities most in need.

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11 Dec 2023 China
2023年国际山岳日:恢复山地生态系统

山地被广泛认为是生物多样性的发源地,其陡峭的斜坡孕育了各种繁复的生命形式。这些地区作为自然的庇护所变得愈发重要:虽然它们只占据了地球总面积的四分之一,却容纳了地球上85%的两栖动物、鸟类和哺乳动物。这种丰富的自然资源在联合国教科文组织的738个全球生物圈保护区中得到体现,其中明显超过一半位于山区。 然而,令人担忧的是,这些自然资源的非凡丰富正面临威胁。过去,由于偏远或地形困难,山地得以免受人类干扰,但如今这种状况逐渐减少。曾经被视为大自然摇篮和避难所的山地正在逐渐转变成墓地。在兴都库什-喜马拉雅地区,上个世纪就已经失去了70%的生物多样性。这些损失,包括物种的灭绝,如今正以加速度增长,正如ICIMOD的重要评估报告《兴都库什喜马拉雅的水、冰、社会和生态系统》(简称《HIWISE报告》)所指出的那样。 在公众、政治和外交层面,人们越来越认识到自然是我们当前危机中最重要的解决方案之一。联合国已宣布2021-2030年为生态系统恢复十年,去年,《昆明-蒙特利尔全球生物多样性框架》的指导下,全球100多个政府承诺在2030年之前将30%的陆地和海洋保留给自然,其中包括兴都库什-喜马拉雅地区。今年,在联合国全球气候大会COP28上,自然首次成为讨论的核心议题。 这些努力,以及今年国际山岳日的“生态系统恢复”主题,为恢复和保护山区景观提供了迫切需要的推动力。那么,我们的八个成员国离实现“30x30”目标有多近呢?到目前为止,不丹是唯一一个实际超额达标的国家,其51.4%的土地面积已经属于各种保护区类别。 尼泊尔只有不到24%的土地受到保护;中国仅为16%,略高于目标的一半;巴基斯坦占12%;印度为8%;缅甸为7%;孟加拉国为5%,阿富汗为4%。 令人担忧的是,在整个兴都库什-喜马拉雅地区,自然资源仍然丰富的关键区域仍处在保护之外:67%的生态区、39%的生物多样性热点、69%的关键生物多样性区域以及76%的重要鸟类和生物多样性区都没有得到保护。 现有的保护区域犹如在人类改变过的景观中的“孤岛”,缺乏与其他保护区域的连通走廊,无法满足广泛分布的物种需求,并且面临非法捕猎、侵占和资源开采的压力。现有的保护区域不足以确保成功保护我们地区的象征性物种,包括亚洲象、独角犀牛和孟加拉虎。 一个尚未尝试的解决方案是建立跨界生物圈保护区,这将允许在景观层面进行综合保护。实现这一目标需要跨越国家边界的共同政治承诺,并在共享生态系统的管理方面展开合作。ICIMOD将积极推动我们区域成员国接受这一解决方案。 然而,底线是,要扭转自然的损失,我们必须对其进行估值并提供相应的资金支持。只要经济学家继续将其价值定为零,就不会引起足够的重视。在进行估值之前,拥有大量自然资本但经济欠发达的国家将因为缺乏3A信用评级而难以以较低贷款利率借款。必须为该地区的国家提供更便宜的资本来促使自然的恢复:这是ICIMOD将与我们的成员、多边开发银行和其他机构紧急合作推进的事项。为了防止地球系统完全崩溃,我们必须为大自然提供一个适宜的生存环境,这一观点从未像现在这样显而易见。

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