Spatial and temporal analysis of climate change variables and indices using CORDEX datasets over Bhutan

About the training

In collaboration with the Met Office, the UK’s national meteorological agency, the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)/COordinated Regional Climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX), the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), and the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) – Pune, we are organising a five-day training for relevant professionals from different national meteorological and hydrological services (NMHSs) in Bhutan on spatial and temporal analysis of climate change variables and indices using CORDEX datasets over Bhutan.

Supported by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)/COordinated Regional Climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX), this training will focus on using the R programme to analyse climate variables, select representative climate models, and use the Climate Data Indices Tool (CDITool) to calculate select indices by sector (agriculture, health, and water resources) from a list of more than 50 climate indices of selected representative models for a defined area of interest. The tool also allows for the spatial and temporal analysis of the calculated climate indices.

Objectives

The training aims to build knowledge and skills among professionals in Bhutan in analysing climate change projections, selecting representative models for the defined area of interest, and then calculating and analysing climate indices using CORDEX regional climate model simulations.

Expected outcomes

The impact of climate change on the climate variable mean happens gradually. On the other hand, the impact on the extremes can be immediately visible. This training will expand the knowledge of participants to better understand climate model projections using 17 regional climate models, selecting the representative models which replicate the historical climate cycle, and assessing spatial and temporal variability of present and future climate over a defined area of interest. The training will help participants calculate the climate indices for their sector and analyse these indices to better understand the impact of climate change.

In addition to using the tool to calculate the climate indices, the participants will be able to:

• Select representative models for their defined area of interest
• Extract CORDEX datasets for their areas of interest and analyse them
• Conduct spatial and temporal visualisation of climate indices over their defined area of interest
• Interpret the uncertainty of the selected model results

Participation

In its current iteration, this training is being offered to relevant professionals from the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology (NCHM) in Bhutan, along with other government agencies and academia. The training is planned to be held in person.

Resource persons

ICIMOD: Saurav Pradhananga, Pradeep Dangol, Mandira Singh Shrestha

Met Office: Catrina Johnson

CORDEX and Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute: Iréne Lake, Erik Kjellström

Centre for Climate Change Research, IITM – Pune: J Sanjay, Sandip Ingle

Background

The knowledge and capabilities of staff working at key national and regional institutions delivering climate services need to be strengthened to provide the information needed for informed climate change responses in South Asia. The UK Aid-supported ARRCC programme has adopted an institutional capacity-building approach to regional climate projections to help meet this need. The approach targets NMHSs and other organisations in ARRCC focal countries – Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Pakistan – working to provide climate services to government/nongovernment organisations, communities, and industrial sectors vulnerable to climate change impacts.

In October 2020, ICIMOD and the Met Office partnered with the World Climate Research Programme, the SMHI, and IITM – Pune to organise a training on Regional climate change projections: Climate change analysis using CORDEX regional climate models over South Asia. Organised under ICIMOD’s Climate Services Initiative, the training was part of ARRCC’s institutional capacity-building approach to strengthen the knowledge and capabilities of staff working at key national and regional institutions, delivering climate services to provide information needs for informed climate change responses in South Asia.

As a follow-on activity to the 2020 training, we  organised a series of country-focused training  workshops for professionals from different NMHSs in ARRCC focal countries. We organised three training workshops on using CORDEX regional climate models to carry out spatial and temporal analysis of climate change over South Asia for the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology of Nepal in June 2021, for the Bangladesh University for Engineering and Technology (BUET) and other academic institutions in December 2021, and for the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) and Institute of Water Modelling (IWM) in March 2022. We organised a regional training on spatial and temporal analysis of climate change indices using the CDITool and CORDEX datasets over South Asia for participants from NMHSs and research organisations from Bangladesh, Nepal, and Pakistan in June 2022.

This training planned for December 2022 will introduce the CDITool to professionals from Bhutan and focus on a selection of representative climate models, assessing present and future climate, and calculating and analysing climate indices for a few representative models for a defined area of interest.

Tentative agenda