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Early Warning for All cannot come soon enough for the Hindu Kush Himalaya

Pema Gyamtsho

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File Photo: Women sitting at the banks of Mahakali river after the floods on June 2013 that displaces 2500 people in the district of Darchula in Nepal. (Jitendra Bajracharya/ ICIMOD)

The economic price of climate-driven storms, floods, heatwaves and droughts has been calculated for the first time—and found to have already, over the course of the last two decades, cost humanity, collectively, $16m an hour. Two-thirds of the costs were due to loss of life. The rest, to property and other assets.

These are not mere statistics to the Hindu Kush Himalaya. Already, across our region this year, families have borne unbearable losses due to climate disasters. Hundreds of lives have been lost. Many more have been turned upside down as homes, crops, possessions have been lost in devastating floods and landslides. Most recently, last week’s flood of the Teesta River in Sikkim caused by a glacial lake outburst served as a stark reminder that nature’s fury knows no bounds.

This year’s International Day for Disaster Risk Reduction falls as families, scientists and policymakers across our region take stock of the heavy human and economic costs of this monsoon and rising global temperatures.

They will also be looking forward. Because climate-driven disasters are set to soar. The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction anticipates we’ll see 560 disasters annually by 2030, pushing an additional 37.6 million people into extreme poverty.

The science shows that our region is a hotspot for risks. Not only those associated with extreme rain and cryosphere change—but also heatwaves, droughts, and toxic air. So, while we count the costs of events this monsoon, the onus is on all of us that serve this region and its people to move with greater speed and ambition to join the dots between science, policy and action, and to make good on the ambition to make early warning for all a reality for those communities exposed.

We badly need donors to recognise the extent of our exposure to risk in this region: both in terms of numbers and scale of hazards, but also in terms of the population size impacted. We urgently need the Adaptation Fund, the Green Climate Fund and the Children’s Investment Finance Fund to release funds ever faster to this region; and for compensation mechanisms to be operationalised.

At ICIMOD we will be advocating for both globally. We will also be working across the region to build out a culture of data-sharing around disaster preparedness and response; to educate policymakers of gaps and key areas for action; to equip communities with innovative and accessible technologies and to scale out community-based flood early warning systems.

Our region shows the huge inequality there is in terms of exposure to hazards worldwide. Our research tells us too that women and vulnerable groups are disproportionately affected when a crisis hits. We pledge to fight this inequality by mobilising the tools, knowledge and funds to ensure people in this region are resilient to future shocks, placing women and vulnerable group at the heart of our strategies. Early warning for all cannot come fast enough for the countries of the Hindu Kush Himalaya.

 

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山地被广泛认为是生物多样性的发源地,其陡峭的斜坡孕育了各种繁复的生命形式。这些地区作为自然的庇护所变得愈发重要:虽然它们只占据了地球总面积的四分之一,却容纳了地球上85%的两栖动物、鸟类和哺乳动物。这种丰富的自然资源在联合国教科文组织的738个全球生物圈保护区中得到体现,其中明显超过一半位于山区。 然而,令人担忧的是,这些自然资源的非凡丰富正面临威胁。过去,由于偏远或地形困难,山地得以免受人类干扰,但如今这种状况逐渐减少。曾经被视为大自然摇篮和避难所的山地正在逐渐转变成墓地。在兴都库什-喜马拉雅地区,上个世纪就已经失去了70%的生物多样性。这些损失,包括物种的灭绝,如今正以加速度增长,正如ICIMOD的重要评估报告《兴都库什喜马拉雅的水、冰、社会和生态系统》(简称《HIWISE报告》)所指出的那样。 在公众、政治和外交层面,人们越来越认识到自然是我们当前危机中最重要的解决方案之一。联合国已宣布2021-2030年为生态系统恢复十年,去年,《昆明-蒙特利尔全球生物多样性框架》的指导下,全球100多个政府承诺在2030年之前将30%的陆地和海洋保留给自然,其中包括兴都库什-喜马拉雅地区。今年,在联合国全球气候大会COP28上,自然首次成为讨论的核心议题。 这些努力,以及今年国际山岳日的“生态系统恢复”主题,为恢复和保护山区景观提供了迫切需要的推动力。那么,我们的八个成员国离实现“30x30”目标有多近呢?到目前为止,不丹是唯一一个实际超额达标的国家,其51.4%的土地面积已经属于各种保护区类别。 尼泊尔只有不到24%的土地受到保护;中国仅为16%,略高于目标的一半;巴基斯坦占12%;印度为8%;缅甸为7%;孟加拉国为5%,阿富汗为4%。 令人担忧的是,在整个兴都库什-喜马拉雅地区,自然资源仍然丰富的关键区域仍处在保护之外:67%的生态区、39%的生物多样性热点、69%的关键生物多样性区域以及76%的重要鸟类和生物多样性区都没有得到保护。 现有的保护区域犹如在人类改变过的景观中的“孤岛”,缺乏与其他保护区域的连通走廊,无法满足广泛分布的物种需求,并且面临非法捕猎、侵占和资源开采的压力。现有的保护区域不足以确保成功保护我们地区的象征性物种,包括亚洲象、独角犀牛和孟加拉虎。 一个尚未尝试的解决方案是建立跨界生物圈保护区,这将允许在景观层面进行综合保护。实现这一目标需要跨越国家边界的共同政治承诺,并在共享生态系统的管理方面展开合作。ICIMOD将积极推动我们区域成员国接受这一解决方案。 然而,底线是,要扭转自然的损失,我们必须对其进行估值并提供相应的资金支持。只要经济学家继续将其价值定为零,就不会引起足够的重视。在进行估值之前,拥有大量自然资本但经济欠发达的国家将因为缺乏3A信用评级而难以以较低贷款利率借款。必须为该地区的国家提供更便宜的资本来促使自然的恢复:这是ICIMOD将与我们的成员、多边开发银行和其他机构紧急合作推进的事项。为了防止地球系统完全崩溃,我们必须为大自然提供一个适宜的生存环境,这一观点从未像现在这样显而易见。

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