Foresight training for anticipatory adaptation in the Hindu Kush Himalaya

Organisers: ICIMOD, Foresight4Food (F4F)

About the foresight training for anticipatory adaptation

The training workshop will be co-led by Amina Maharjan and Sabarnee Tuladhar from ICIMOD, and Jim Woodhill from Foresight4Food Programme. Foresight4Food is a global initiative hosted by the Food Systems Group of the Environmental Change Institute at Oxford University. The initiative supports food system transformation processes by offering organisations scenarios and foresight expertise. They also foster collaboration by regularly convening events and seminars, bringing together a wide range of actors, platforms, and networks with a shared interest in food systems and foresight approaches.

The training will delve into systems mapping, scenario development, and exploring pathways for transformative change through a series of hands-on exercises. It is intended not only to strengthen participants’ knowledge and understanding of foresight but also equip them with practical skills to facilitate foresight processes in their own country contexts. In addition, the training will bring together several policy makers, nominated by relevant government institutions from the region to foster futures thinking in governance processes, including climate change adaptation plans at both national and regional levels.

Building on the horizon scanning exercise from the September 2023 workshop, the 5-day training will culminate in a daylong session to further explore and understand key trends and uncertainties shaping the HKH’s future trajectories.

Objectives

• Equip participants, including partners engaging in foresight activities, with basic knowledge of foresight frameworks, processes, approaches and tools to apply foresight in their own contexts.
• Take stock of how foresight is being used within countries, in the region and around the world.
• Foster collaborative partnerships aimed at conducting foresight studies and integrating foresight in governance process at various scales.
• Build on the horizon scanning exercise initiated during the Sept 2023 workshop to further understand the important, impactful and strong trends relevant to HKH in the coming years and decades.
• Foster futures thinking among policy makers from the HKH countries to adapt to transboundary environmental and social challenges through regional cooperation and collaboration.
• Create field-appropriate data collection instruments which include the necessary domains and indicators for analysis
• Proficiently gather data from the field while adhering to the data collection protocol
• Ensure quality data entry by utilising suitable templates and software
• Comprehend the fundamental principles of data management

Outputs

• Better understanding of the concept and science of foresight, and the processes, frameworks, and tools to support anticipatory policymaking.
• Strengthened facilitation skills for better implementation of participatory foresight activities.
• Clearly identified participatory foresight approaches and tools relevant to the participant’s context that will help them co-create and implement a foresight plan
• A greater understanding among participants of the likely impacts of prominent, impactful, and uncertain trends relevant to the HKH in the future.
• A common understanding of foresight tools that can be used to foster regional cooperation.
• Groundwork for building a foresight network for the HKH countries.

Participants

The target audience includes ICIMOD partners and other relevant stakeholders such as government agencies, non-governmental organizations (NGOs/INGOs), academic and research organizations, and development practitioners. Priority will be given to partner institutions and stakeholders who are expected to be engaged in foresight activities under AAC – Intervention Area 1 and government partners engaged in regional cooperation under AAE. An open call will be launched to expand the growing foresight network and foster broader participation from the HKH region.

Background

The Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region is experiencing rapid changes due to climate shifts (temperature, precipitation, extreme weather) and socio-economic factors (such as migration, urbanization, infrastructure, and technology). The current reactive adaptation approach will need to change to keep pace with these developments. The uncertain future calls for “anticipatory actions and governance.”

Despite improvements in global climate science, critical knowledge gaps and uncertainties are still moulding the ground realities. A deeper understanding of local impacts on livelihoods, economies, socio-cultural practices, beliefs, and aspirations is required to bridge the gap between global knowledge and local needs to build resilience against an uncertain future. The participatory foresight approach offers a wide range of powerful future-oriented methods and tools using participatory scenario planning to stress-test policies, plans and interventions against multiple future directions.

In this context, ICIMOD aims to identify and understand the uncertainties and likely trajectories for mountain economies and livelihoods that have the potential to lead to critical risks under different climate scenarios. Furthermore, it intends to ensure the resilience of mountain communities through a foresight approach, which has been successfully used in many fields including the food systems policy in Bangladesh. In addition, a novel idea that will be tested during this event is the use of foresight tools to foster regional cooperation for addressing transboundary environmental and social challenges.

A workshop on ‘Foresight and scenarios for anticipatory adaptation in the Hindu Kush Himalaya’ was organized by ICIMOD in September 2023 to introduce the concept of ‘foresight’ and gauge interest in engaging with it. The concept of ‘foresight’ was new to most participants at the workshop. During discussions, the capacity needs, both on core concepts of foresight and the associated tools, were identified. This 5-day training workshop is a response to the demand and felt need for capacity building on participatory foresight and tools.