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Spatial and temporal climate change analysis using CORDEX regional climate models over Bangladesh

Venue

Dhaka, Bangladesh

Date & Time

07 March 2022 to 11 March 2022

About the training

We are organizing a five-day training for relevant professionals in Bangladesh on the spatial and temporal analysis of climate change using CORDEX regional climate models over Bangladesh. Supported by the UK Aid-funded Asia Regional Resilience to a Changing Climate (ARRCC) programme, this training will introduce climate change science and focus on bias calculation and selection of a few representative models for a defined area of interest. We are collaborating with the following for the training: the Met Office; the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)/COordinated Regional Climate Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX); the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI); the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD); and the Centre for Climate Change Research (CCCR) at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) – Pune.

 

Objectives

This training aims to build knowledge and skills of professionals in Bangladesh in analysing climate change projections using CORDEX regional climate model simulations.

 

Expected outcomes

The training will help participants better understand climate model projections using 17 regional climate simulations, selecting representative models which best replicate historical climate cycles and assessing spatial and temporal variability of present and future climate change over a defined area of interest.

In addition to gaining an overall understanding of climate modelling and downscaling, the participants will be able to:

  • Prepare CORDEX datasets in areas of interest and compare them with reference datasets
  • Visualize spatial and temporal variations in climate change projections
  • Interpret uncertainty in model results

 

Participation

In its current iteration, this training is being offered to the BMD and relevant research organizations in Bangladesh. The training is planned to be held in person, subject to the COVID-19 situation. Alternatively, the training may have to be organized virtually.

Participation list

Resource persons

ICIMOD: Saurav Pradhananga, Kabi Raj Khatiwada, Mandira Singh Shrestha

Met Office: Joseph Daron

CORDEX: Iréne Lake

CCCR, IITM – Pune: J Sanjay

BUET: Md Saiful Islam

 

Presentations and training data

 

Spatial and temporal analysis of climate change

Spatial and temporal analysis of climate change using CORDEX regional climate models for Bangladesh

ICIMOD

Regional climate models can inform detailed impact assessments and planning in vulnerable regions such as South Asia. As part of efforts to build institutional capacities regarding climate change analysis in the region, we got together with partners, including the UK’s Met Office, to organise a training on ‘Spatial and temporal analysis of climate change using CORDEX regional climate models for Bangladesh’.
 
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Background

In October 2020, ICIMOD and the Met Office, which is the UK’s national meteorological agency, partnered with the WCRP/CORDEX, SMHI, and IITM – Pune to organize a training on Regional climate change projections: Climate change analysis using CORDEX regional climate models over South Asia. Organized under the UK Aid-supported ARRCC programme, the training was part of the ARRCC’s institutional capacity-building approach to strengthen the knowledge and capabilities of staff working at key national and regional institutions, delivering climate services to provide information needs for informed climate change responses in South Asia.

As a follow-on activity to the 2020 training, country-focused trainings are being organized for professionals from different national meteorological and hydrological services (NMHSs) in ARRCC focal countries – Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Pakistan – under ICIMOD’s Climate Services Initiative. In 2021, we held two trainings on using CORDEX regional climate models to carry out spatial and temporal analysis of climate change over South Asia for the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology of Nepal in June and for Bangladesh University for Engineering and Technology (BUET) and other academic institutions in December.

This training planned for March 2022 will introduce climate change science and will focus on bias calculation and selection of few representative models for a defined area of interest for the BMD. The training will delve deeper into how R-based tools can be used to analyse and visualize climate change projections spatially at different time scales over the whole of Bangladesh.

 

Institutional capacity-building approach

The knowledge and capabilities of staff working at key national and regional institutions delivering climate services need to be strengthened to provide information needs for informed climate change responses in South Asia. The ARRCC programme has adopted an institutional capacity-building approach on regional climate projections to help meet this need. The approach targets NMHSs and other organizations in ARRCC focal countries working to provide climate services to government/non-government organizations, communities, and industrial sectors vulnerable to climate change impacts.

A series of training activities will take place between 2020 and 2022 to build the capacities of individuals at targeted institutions in analysing climate projections and producing information products for use in different sectoral applications. Trainings will be jointly developed and delivered by ICIMOD and the Met Office, with support from other relevant organizations, including the WCRP/CORDEX, SMHI, and IITM – Pune, where appropriate.

 

Agenda

Timings are in Bangladesh Standard Time (UTC+06:00).

Time Programme
10:00–12:30 Morning session

Pre-assessment survey

Troubleshooting with the installation of the required software – R programme and required packages/Climate Data Operator

12:30-13:30 Break
13:30–14:00 Afternoon session

Opening session

Welcome remarks – TBC, BMD

Opening remarks – Joseph Daron, Met Office

Climate services in the HKH region and objectives of the training – Mandira Singh Shrestha, ICIMOD

Introductions and expectations – Participants

14:00–14:30 Break
14:30–17:00 Presentations on the fundamental concepts of climate change science and prediction (20 min presentations followed by 5 min Q&A)

Climate change and its impact on the HKH region – Mandira Singh Shrestha, ICIMOD

Climate modelling and approaches to regional and local downscaling – Joseph Daron and Cathryn Fox, Met Office

Break (20 minutes)
Introduction to CORDEX datasets over South Asia – J Sanjay, CCCR-IITM

Application of future climate projections in Bangladesh – Md Saiful Islam, BUET

Time Programme Resource persons
10:00–12:30 Morning session

Extracting CORDEX datasets (precipitation and temperatures)

Clipping datasets for an area of interest (Bangladesh)

Preparing datasets for visualization

Annual climate patterns of all 17 CORDEX simulations

Discussions about climatic patterns

Understanding the present climatology (precipitation and temperature) using APHRODITE data (1976–2005)

Saurav Pradhananga, Kabi Raj Khatiwada, ICIMOD
12:30–13:30 Break
13:30–17:00 Afternoon session

Hands-on session on participants’ area of interest

Saurav Pradhananga, Kabi Raj Khatiwada, ICIMOD

Time Programme Resource persons
10:00–12:30 Morning session

Comparison of CORDEX datasets with reference datasets – APHRODITE

Calculate seasonal bias (step 1)

Calculate annual bias (step 2)

Narrow down the model to 4 RCMs (RCP4.5) and 4 RCMs (RCP8.5)

Ensemble mean of the selected four models

Saurav Pradhananga, Kabi Raj Khatiwada, ICIMOD
12:30–13:30 Break
13:30–17:00 Afternoon session

Hands-on session on participants’ area of interest

 

Saurav Pradhananga, Kabi Raj Khatiwada, ICIMOD

Time Programme Resource persons
10:00–12:30 Morning session

Calculation of future scenarios of precipitation and temperature at both scenarios

Calculation of the annual and seasonal change for the season

Preparation of the maps

Q&A followed by discussion

Saurav Pradhananga, Kabi Raj Khatiwada, ICIMOD
12:30–13:30 Break
13:30–17:00 Afternoon session

Overview of CORDEX

Hands-on session on participants’ area of interest

 

 

Irene Lake, CORDEX

Saurav Pradhananga, Kabi Raj Khatiwada, ICIMOD

Time Programme Resource persons
10:00–12:30 Morning session

Calculation of the scatter plot with min-max error bars

Understanding of the uncertainty among the models

Troubleshooting

Discussion on the results

Way forward

Saurav Pradhananga, Kabi Raj Khatiwada, ICIMOD
12:30–13:30 Break  
13:30–16:00 Afternoon session

Group work on selected areas by participants

Presentation by participants

 

16:00-16:30 Post-training evaluation
16:30-17:00 Closing session

Remarks by BMD

Remarks by Met Office

Remarks by ICIMOD