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Message from the Director General

I am happy to bring to you an important publication by our Centre – The Impact of Nepal’s 2015 Gorkha Earthquake-Induced Geohazards – that we released on 12 May, coinciding with the day of the biggest aftershock of last year’s Earthquake. We consider this publication important for three main reasons: first, because of its content; second, because of the relevance of the content to the people of the region; and third, because of the partnership that put the report together.

David James Molden

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In the aftermath of the Gorkha Earthquake that hit Nepal on 25 April, ICIMOD joined hands with regional and international experts and institutions to map the positions of landslides and debris flows and where they had blocked river valleys. The information collected by the team was provided directly to the Government of Nepal to assist in relief efforts and was instrumental in the formation of a Geohazards Task Force by the government.

Later, ICIMOD in collaboration with other experts undertook several studies including field surveys, airborne observations, and remote sensing mapping to assess the occurrence and impact of the geohazards induced by the earthquake and its aftershocks. Many professionals around the world sacrificed their days and nights to gather and share information. This publication presents the results of this work together with findings from several other related studies.

One important lesson we have learnt in the wake of the Nepal Earthquake is the importance of regional and global cooperation in the face of disaster of such a scale. Individuals will rise to the cause, and their results will be stronger with an organized platform. Countries in the Hindu Kush Himalayas, like Nepal, are highly susceptible to geo-hazards posing grave risk to settlements and infrastructures. This is where knowledge and specialized institutions can play critical role by providing geo-information to the governments and other actors with satellite-based data and analyses to inform rescue and relief.

The Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region is geologically fragile with unstable slope-land systems, and geohazards such as landslides and debris flows are common. The people of the region are very vulnerable to such natural hazards, a vulnerability compounded by the social conditions. The region also falls in a high seismic zone; earthquakes are a frequent phenomenon and cause significant loss of lives and property.

The Gorkha Earthquake devastated large parts of the country. The main shock of 25 April and several other aftershocks including that of 12 May caused the death of about 9,000 people, injured 22,000, and was responsible for loss and damage equivalent to USD 7 billion. This study indicates that the main geohazards induced by the Gorkha Earthquake were landslides, river channel constriction and damming, and avalanches with debris flow and airburst. The number of landslides was large (more than 4,000), but much less than that induced elsewhere by other earthquakes of similar magnitude.

Results from the study have shown that damage from earthquake-induced geohazards can be considerable, and there is the need to treat geohazards separately since their nature and effects and mitigation and adaptation options are different. Similarly, the secondary effect of the damage from geohazards is likely to be comparatively much higher than that of the direct earthquake impact in terms of loss of livelihoods, blocking of movement of people, goods, and services, and loss of revenue from trade and energy supply.

New data has revealed that the Gorkha Earthquake did not release all of the stress that had built up underground along the Himalayan arc. Due to the residual stress, likelihood of another large earthquake occurring in the future remains. Seismologists say the damage from a possible large earthquake could be much worse.

We hope that the findings and the recommendations provided by the authors in this publication will help policy and decision makers in Nepal and other regional member countries in their efforts to prepare for geohazards and improve geohazard management.

I gratefully acknowledge the timely support provided by the Governments of India (Indian Space Research Organization), Pakistan (Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission), China (Chinese Academy of Sciences), and Nepal, as well as other bodies like the National Aerospace and Space Administration, the University of Arizona, United States Agency for International Development, Environmental System Research Institute, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, Digital Globe, US Geological Survey, signatories to the International Charter on Space and Major Disasters, and the many professionals who gave willingly their precious time in a time of need.

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13 Oct 2023 China
在兴都库什-喜马拉雅,全民早期预警尚需更及时的实现

由气候驱动的风暴、洪水、热浪和干旱的经济代价首次被计算出来,即在过去20年中,人类付出的代价已达到1600万美元/小时。其中,三分之二的费用是由于生命损失,剩下的则是因为财产和其他资产损失。 而这不仅是兴都库什-喜马拉雅的统计数据。今年,在我们整个地区,气候灾害给许多家庭来了难以承受的损失:数百人丧生,更多的房屋、农作物和财产在毁灭性的洪水和山体滑坡中被毁。最近,上周锡金蒂斯塔河(Teesta river)爆发冰川湖溃决洪水,这清楚地提醒了人类,大自然的愤怒是无止境的。 今年的国际减灾日与我们区域内的家庭、科学家和政策制定者共同评估了季风和全球升温给人类和经济带来的沉重代价,恰逢其时。 展望未来,气候驱动的灾难将激增。联合国减少灾害风险办公室(UNDRR)预计,到2030年,我们每年将看到560起灾难,使3760万人陷入极端贫困。 科学表明,我们处在风险热点地区。不仅与极端降雨和冰冻圈变化相关,还有热浪、干旱和空气污染。因此,在计算这次季风事件的成本时,我们所有为该地区及其居民服务的人都有责任以更高的速度和更强的雄心,将科学、政策和行动联系起来,实现让所有人都能得到早期预警的目标。 我们急需捐助者深入了解该地区居民所面临的风险,无论是从危险量级和程度来看,还是从受影响的人口规模来看。我们迫切需要适应基金、绿色气候基金和儿童投资融资基金更快地分配到该地区,以及加强补偿机制的运作。 在ICIMOD,我们将在全球范围内倡导双方,还将在整个地区努力建立一种围绕防灾和数据共享文化;对政策制定者进行差异和关键行动领域的教育;为社区配备创新及可行的技术,并扩大以社区为基础的洪水预警系统。 我们所在地区的情况表明,全球范围内面临的灾害存在着巨大的不平等。我们的研究发现,当危机来临时,妇女和弱势群体受到的影响尤为严重。 为了消除这种不平等,我们郑重承诺通过整合工具、知识和资金,确保该地区居民能够有效抵御未来的冲击,并将妇女和弱势群体纳入我们战略的核心。对于兴都库什-喜马拉雅的国家而言,全民早期预警尚需更及时的实现。   白马·嘉措 总干事

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