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David James Molden
3 mins Read
In late August this year, we hosted our first International Forum on the Cryosphere and Society in Kathmandu. What set this event apart was, not only did it bring together notable scholars, glaciologists, social and physical scientists from the world over, but for the first time we invited people from communities who live near and together with glaciers. Many from the same glaciers that we monitor and study extensively.
The addition of members of the communities, who are directly affected by the changes we are observing, researching and reporting, brought about a different and extremely important perspective to the forum. To hear first-hand accounts from people who are in the frontlines of climate change we hear of, read, and speak of so much, reminded us again of the urgency and how impacts are already being felt in a very real sense. Many of the stories were surprises and new information for us. This dialogue between mountain communities and our community of researchers made what can often be thought of as abstract atmospheric and meteorological phenomena into something very tangible.
The forum was a good reminder that people, just like you and I, are the ones at the centre of everything. It is often easy to forget this when we speak of glaciers melting at an accelerated pace, for example. Or that average temperatures are going to increase by a degree or two (and faster again in the mountains). What we often miss is the avalanches which also occur from accelerated melting of glaciers, the glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), the loss of pasturelands, which completely wipe out entire communities physically or in terms of their livelihoods.
There are some shifts which are starting to happen though. In the recent High Mountain Summit called by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), which is the authority on reporting the changes happening to our global climate, there was an observable change. The message coming out of the meeting stressed that the focus of WMO was not only observation, as it has traditionally been, but there is now a greater need to also emphasize climate services, essentially providing climate information services to people. Shifting from observation to climate services puts the focus on people first and foremost, and this needs to be welcomed.
Similarly, there is news coming through that the United Nations Convention on Sustainable Mountain Development has successfully been drafted and due to be adopted by the UN General Assembly on December 20. We are extremely happy that we have been able to contribute to the process through our HKH Assessment. This too we hope will put the focus strongly on mountain people and the challenges they face.
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由气候驱动的风暴、洪水、热浪和干旱的经济代价首次被计算出来,即在过去20年中,人类付出的代价已达到1600万美元/小时。其中,三分之二的费用是由于生命损失,剩下的则是因为财产和其他资产损失。 而这不仅是兴都库什-喜马拉雅的统计数据。今年,在我们整个地区,气候灾害给许多家庭来了难以承受的损失:数百人丧生,更多的房屋、农作物和财产在毁灭性的洪水和山体滑坡中被毁。最近,上周锡金蒂斯塔河(Teesta river)爆发冰川湖溃决洪水,这清楚地提醒了人类,大自然的愤怒是无止境的。 今年的国际减灾日与我们区域内的家庭、科学家和政策制定者共同评估了季风和全球升温给人类和经济带来的沉重代价,恰逢其时。 展望未来,气候驱动的灾难将激增。联合国减少灾害风险办公室(UNDRR)预计,到2030年,我们每年将看到560起灾难,使3760万人陷入极端贫困。 科学表明,我们处在风险热点地区。不仅与极端降雨和冰冻圈变化相关,还有热浪、干旱和空气污染。因此,在计算这次季风事件的成本时,我们所有为该地区及其居民服务的人都有责任以更高的速度和更强的雄心,将科学、政策和行动联系起来,实现让所有人都能得到早期预警的目标。 我们急需捐助者深入了解该地区居民所面临的风险,无论是从危险量级和程度来看,还是从受影响的人口规模来看。我们迫切需要适应基金、绿色气候基金和儿童投资融资基金更快地分配到该地区,以及加强补偿机制的运作。 在ICIMOD,我们将在全球范围内倡导双方,还将在整个地区努力建立一种围绕防灾和数据共享文化;对政策制定者进行差异和关键行动领域的教育;为社区配备创新及可行的技术,并扩大以社区为基础的洪水预警系统。 我们所在地区的情况表明,全球范围内面临的灾害存在着巨大的不平等。我们的研究发现,当危机来临时,妇女和弱势群体受到的影响尤为严重。 为了消除这种不平等,我们郑重承诺通过整合工具、知识和资金,确保该地区居民能够有效抵御未来的冲击,并将妇女和弱势群体纳入我们战略的核心。对于兴都库什-喜马拉雅的国家而言,全民早期预警尚需更及时的实现。 白马·嘉措 总干事