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David James Molden
3 mins Read
In late August this year, we hosted our first International Forum on the Cryosphere and Society in Kathmandu. What set this event apart was, not only did it bring together notable scholars, glaciologists, social and physical scientists from the world over, but for the first time we invited people from communities who live near and together with glaciers. Many from the same glaciers that we monitor and study extensively.
The addition of members of the communities, who are directly affected by the changes we are observing, researching and reporting, brought about a different and extremely important perspective to the forum. To hear first-hand accounts from people who are in the frontlines of climate change we hear of, read, and speak of so much, reminded us again of the urgency and how impacts are already being felt in a very real sense. Many of the stories were surprises and new information for us. This dialogue between mountain communities and our community of researchers made what can often be thought of as abstract atmospheric and meteorological phenomena into something very tangible.
The forum was a good reminder that people, just like you and I, are the ones at the centre of everything. It is often easy to forget this when we speak of glaciers melting at an accelerated pace, for example. Or that average temperatures are going to increase by a degree or two (and faster again in the mountains). What we often miss is the avalanches which also occur from accelerated melting of glaciers, the glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), the loss of pasturelands, which completely wipe out entire communities physically or in terms of their livelihoods.
There are some shifts which are starting to happen though. In the recent High Mountain Summit called by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), which is the authority on reporting the changes happening to our global climate, there was an observable change. The message coming out of the meeting stressed that the focus of WMO was not only observation, as it has traditionally been, but there is now a greater need to also emphasize climate services, essentially providing climate information services to people. Shifting from observation to climate services puts the focus on people first and foremost, and this needs to be welcomed.
Similarly, there is news coming through that the United Nations Convention on Sustainable Mountain Development has successfully been drafted and due to be adopted by the UN General Assembly on December 20. We are extremely happy that we have been able to contribute to the process through our HKH Assessment. This too we hope will put the focus strongly on mountain people and the challenges they face.
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山地被广泛认为是生物多样性的发源地,其陡峭的斜坡孕育了各种繁复的生命形式。这些地区作为自然的庇护所变得愈发重要:虽然它们只占据了地球总面积的四分之一,却容纳了地球上85%的两栖动物、鸟类和哺乳动物。这种丰富的自然资源在联合国教科文组织的738个全球生物圈保护区中得到体现,其中明显超过一半位于山区。 然而,令人担忧的是,这些自然资源的非凡丰富正面临威胁。过去,由于偏远或地形困难,山地得以免受人类干扰,但如今这种状况逐渐减少。曾经被视为大自然摇篮和避难所的山地正在逐渐转变成墓地。在兴都库什-喜马拉雅地区,上个世纪就已经失去了70%的生物多样性。这些损失,包括物种的灭绝,如今正以加速度增长,正如ICIMOD的重要评估报告《兴都库什喜马拉雅的水、冰、社会和生态系统》(简称《HIWISE报告》)所指出的那样。 在公众、政治和外交层面,人们越来越认识到自然是我们当前危机中最重要的解决方案之一。联合国已宣布2021-2030年为生态系统恢复十年,去年,《昆明-蒙特利尔全球生物多样性框架》的指导下,全球100多个政府承诺在2030年之前将30%的陆地和海洋保留给自然,其中包括兴都库什-喜马拉雅地区。今年,在联合国全球气候大会COP28上,自然首次成为讨论的核心议题。 这些努力,以及今年国际山岳日的“生态系统恢复”主题,为恢复和保护山区景观提供了迫切需要的推动力。那么,我们的八个成员国离实现“30x30”目标有多近呢?到目前为止,不丹是唯一一个实际超额达标的国家,其51.4%的土地面积已经属于各种保护区类别。 尼泊尔只有不到24%的土地受到保护;中国仅为16%,略高于目标的一半;巴基斯坦占12%;印度为8%;缅甸为7%;孟加拉国为5%,阿富汗为4%。 令人担忧的是,在整个兴都库什-喜马拉雅地区,自然资源仍然丰富的关键区域仍处在保护之外:67%的生态区、39%的生物多样性热点、69%的关键生物多样性区域以及76%的重要鸟类和生物多样性区都没有得到保护。 现有的保护区域犹如在人类改变过的景观中的“孤岛”,缺乏与其他保护区域的连通走廊,无法满足广泛分布的物种需求,并且面临非法捕猎、侵占和资源开采的压力。现有的保护区域不足以确保成功保护我们地区的象征性物种,包括亚洲象、独角犀牛和孟加拉虎。 一个尚未尝试的解决方案是建立跨界生物圈保护区,这将允许在景观层面进行综合保护。实现这一目标需要跨越国家边界的共同政治承诺,并在共享生态系统的管理方面展开合作。ICIMOD将积极推动我们区域成员国接受这一解决方案。 然而,底线是,要扭转自然的损失,我们必须对其进行估值并提供相应的资金支持。只要经济学家继续将其价值定为零,就不会引起足够的重视。在进行估值之前,拥有大量自然资本但经济欠发达的国家将因为缺乏3A信用评级而难以以较低贷款利率借款。必须为该地区的国家提供更便宜的资本来促使自然的恢复:这是ICIMOD将与我们的成员、多边开发银行和其他机构紧急合作推进的事项。为了防止地球系统完全崩溃,我们必须为大自然提供一个适宜的生存环境,这一观点从未像现在这样显而易见。
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